Skate Canada Predictions

Done hastily before I run off to work:

Men: Javier Fernandez, Takahiko Kozuka, Michal Brezina.  Though really, I feel like I’m shooting in the dark even predicting Fernandez to win, despite his abilities; everyone here is so inconsistent.  I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Mura went and won instead(and then probably came in 10th at his other event).  Or Amodio could medal, but I’m putting no money on him until further notice.  But Brezina has been faring worse than the other two, and Kozuka has been struggling much more than Fernandez, so… Also looking forward to: Menshov is still going!  Hope he does well.

Ladies:Ashley Wagner, Anna Pogorilaya, Alena Leonova.  Maybe I’m just predicting what I really want to happen here, when the recent trends would insist the Russians would win instead.  But even with her recent comeback Leonova has a ways to go yet, and Pogoriyala is still not the strongest lady in the Russian field either, so I will continue to hope she can pull this one out, at least if she rotates a few more jumps than she did in Japan.  Looking forward: how well both of them do, though.

Pairs: Meagan Duhamel & Eric Radford, Wenjing Sui & Cong Han, Kirsten Moore-Towers & Michael Marinaro.  Though I’m close to thinking Canada might go 1-2 here, and the only reason I’m not predicting it because Moore-Towers & Marinaro probably are still getting used to each other.  I have doubts about Sui & Han going into the future, especially if she really is younger than her ISU bio claims, and they really aren’t the only ones doing the quad elements anymore.  Also looking forward to: I don’t think James & Cipres will quite medal here, but it’ll be interesting to see how well they do nonetheless.

Ice Dance: Kaitlyn Weaver & Andrew Pojé, Madison Hubbell & Zachary Donohue, Piper Gilles & Paul Poirier.  With the Germans struggling recently, the only real question here becomes who wins the silver, and Hubbell & Donohue were the ones that won the face-off with Gilles & Poirier on the biggest stage either of them has starred on so far.  Also looking forward to: Hurtado & Diaz!

We are experiencing technical difficulties; please stand by

My computer went crazy yesterday morning, possibly out of an ill-advised experiment with expat shield, possibly out of plain old age. A professional computer guy has now confirmed it’s in its last days. Not entirely impressed; my last one lasted much longer. A new computer is on order and should arrive sometime next week. Posting will resume then.

Dancing With the Stars, Season 19, Week 6, “Pitbull Night”

Yeah, that seems to be the week’s theme.  Half the music danced to even involves him(perhaps a more general theme was hip-hop, except one dance wasn’t done to it).  It’s not even Latin night; apparently “the hottest night of the year,” comes about simply by having this random hip hopper come in.  After he does the opening number, he is even then interviewed, and says he’s going to judge the performances by how hot they are, clearly expecting to be viewed as an expert on this.  I don’t get it, and it gets really annoying really quickly.  Maybe it was even smart of Erin Andrews to clear out this week in favor of covering the World Series; recent semi-finalist Leah Remini fills in as co-host.

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Skate America predictions

Assuming no one else withdraws(especially sad to lose Joshi):

Men: Jason Brown, Tatsuki Machida, Jeremy Abbott.  I suppose I’m being a little optimistic about the American guys here, but Brown is on his way up, and I think here the home ice advantage(especially for him since he has roots in the area) will push him over.  Abbott and/or the other two might find themselves behind Denis Ten, of course, but Ten is still on the inconsistent side and is developing a tendency to deliver only at events more important than this one. :-)  Also looking forward to: Welcome to the senior circuit, Michael Christian Martinez!

Ladies: Gracie Gold, Elena Radionova, Elizaveta Tuktamisheva.  As I said yesterday, this may prove slightly harder for Gold to win than the USFSA was anticipating, but she should still do it if she’s on, and thanks to Frank Carroll she’s now on more often than not.  Nearly predicted the two Russian ladies to go the other way, but I don’t think Liza T has quite caught back up with Radionova yet, she definitely hasn’t momentum-wise, and the Russian politicking will probably be working harder for Radionova.  Also looking forward to: Samantha Cesario.  I wouldn’t mind at all if she finished 4th here, though I don’t think she can get higher unless one of the top three(and a few other people) really blows it.

Pairs: Yuko Kavaguti & Alexander Smirnov, Cheng Peng & Hao Zhang, Alexa Scimeca & Chris Knierim.  A weak field, and bronze is especially a crap shoot; I almost predicted Denney & Frazier(perhaps I should just say bronze will go to an American team).  But Yuko & Alex have the most history of success and despite a little aging and some rising from the rest of the field really are still the best team competing here, and even if Peng & Zhang were pretty strong last year he’s aging too.  Also looking forward to: all three American pairs, really, and how well each does.

Ice Dance: Madison Chock & Evan Bates, Alexandra Stepanova & Ivan Bukin, Maia & Alex Shibutani.  Lucky break for Chock & Bates here that Bobrova & Soloviev withdrew; the open space at the top of US ice dance is clearly theirs to take, and keeping us the US custom of winning at Skate America will be a huge boost too.  It’s probably even to their benefit that if their Finlandia performance is any indication, Stepanova & Bukin will probably keep the American teams from going 1-2.  Also looking forward to: both Canadian teams; they both impressed me at their summerskates.

Pre-Grand Prix Thoughts

NGL, I’m a little alarmed at the weak showing of the U.S. on the JGP lately(whodua thunk our sole entry into the Finale would be a pairs team?!), and what that may bode for the future.  It seems so far everybody except Meryl and Charlie are staying in, so it might not be a problem in the near future, but sooner or later that catches up with you.  On the other hand, it might be a relief for those already vying for all the top spots and looking at 2018, since they already know who most of their foes will be for the quadrennium(although it’s still too early to assume noone will come up).

Looking at the current rosters for Skate America next week, Kavaguti & Smirnov really lucked out; neither of the top two teams initially assigned will be there, and they’ll be strong favorites.  On the other hand, there are signs that the USFSA’s gamble which with Russians they took to square off against Gold might fail; Liza T is looking like she is recovering fast, and Gold will have to be on the top of her game to beat Radionova too, though I still think this is her event to lose.

Meanwhile, thanks to V&T’s pulling out of that one, China’s could be a great boon for either Peng & Zhang or Bazarova & Deputat, if the latter can pull themselves together after their rough start on the Challenger circuit.

Glad to see Lubov I is finally free.  Though will she and Moscovitch be able to manage anything more this season than a couple of later Challenger appearances?

It may be difficult to manage, but I hope they keep the splitting of the judge’s tasks they had at Nebelhorn.  It seemed to really work; I honestly thought the scoring was better for it.  After some of the dubious placements that have happened at a high-profile event or two, some change might be a very good idea.

What a period of viewing it’s been too, with live streaming for both the JGP and it seems most of the Challenger events too!  Although it does make being a skating fan a much more time-consuming prospect than of old.