Worlds!

It seems Junior Worlds wasn’t long enough ago for it to be time for Worlds already, but nonetheless we’re only a weekend away now, and Icenetwork did their predictions, so the rest of us should too:

Men: Denis Ten, Yuzuru Hanyu, Javier Fernandez.  More certain about the first two than the last; Fernandez may yet have a bad competition and hand bronze to one of the Russians.  But Hanyu’s struggles sound like the kind that will allow Ten, who delivers at important competitions nowadays, to slip past him, even though we’ve seen this season just how difficult it is for him to be beaten even when he falls down five times, so…Also predicting: both of said Russian men will finish higher than they probably should.

Ladies: Elizaveta Tuktamisheva, Elena Radionova, Ashley Wagner.  Yep, I’m being optimistic about Ashley yet again, but it’s not like all the other contenders for bronze have had plenty of struggles this season, and most of them had them more recently than she has.  Besides, her PCS are high enough she’ll probably only be beaten by the Russians because of jumps getting dinged, at least unless Liza T pulls off the 3A. Also predicting: Hongo will beat both her countrywomen, and everyone’s heads will implode!

Pairs: Duhamel & Radford, Kavaguti & Smirnov, Peng & Zhang.  Although again, I’m more uncertain as to who will win the bronze, except that they’ll probably be Chinese.  Also predicting: Lubov I & Dylan M getting a high finish.  That would be nice, anyway.

Dance: Weaver & Pojé, Papadakis & Cizeron, Chock & Bates.  Though I’m sure it’ll be extremely close, especially between the top two, and this will probably be W&P’s only world title.  Really would like Chock & Bates to not medal, but that’s probably too much to hope for. Also predicting: The ShibSibs placing much lower than they ought to.  Really, that whole situation is just sad.

Post-Two Events analysis

Have done my yearly analyses of the prospects of everyone for the Grand Prix Finale after two events and posted them to Goldenskate:

Men

Ladies

Pairs

Ice Dance

Though for my predictions Friday, well, I *did* say I wouldn’t be surprised if Mura went and won…

Skate America predictions

Assuming no one else withdraws(especially sad to lose Joshi):

Men: Jason Brown, Tatsuki Machida, Jeremy Abbott.  I suppose I’m being a little optimistic about the American guys here, but Brown is on his way up, and I think here the home ice advantage(especially for him since he has roots in the area) will push him over.  Abbott and/or the other two might find themselves behind Denis Ten, of course, but Ten is still on the inconsistent side and is developing a tendency to deliver only at events more important than this one. 🙂  Also looking forward to: Welcome to the senior circuit, Michael Christian Martinez!

Ladies: Gracie Gold, Elena Radionova, Elizaveta Tuktamisheva.  As I said yesterday, this may prove slightly harder for Gold to win than the USFSA was anticipating, but she should still do it if she’s on, and thanks to Frank Carroll she’s now on more often than not.  Nearly predicted the two Russian ladies to go the other way, but I don’t think Liza T has quite caught back up with Radionova yet, she definitely hasn’t momentum-wise, and the Russian politicking will probably be working harder for Radionova.  Also looking forward to: Samantha Cesario.  I wouldn’t mind at all if she finished 4th here, though I don’t think she can get higher unless one of the top three(and a few other people) really blows it.

Pairs: Yuko Kavaguti & Alexander Smirnov, Cheng Peng & Hao Zhang, Alexa Scimeca & Chris Knierim.  A weak field, and bronze is especially a crap shoot; I almost predicted Denney & Frazier(perhaps I should just say bronze will go to an American team).  But Yuko & Alex have the most history of success and despite a little aging and some rising from the rest of the field really are still the best team competing here, and even if Peng & Zhang were pretty strong last year he’s aging too.  Also looking forward to: all three American pairs, really, and how well each does.

Ice Dance: Madison Chock & Evan Bates, Alexandra Stepanova & Ivan Bukin, Maia & Alex Shibutani.  Lucky break for Chock & Bates here that Bobrova & Soloviev withdrew; the open space at the top of US ice dance is clearly theirs to take, and keeping us the US custom of winning at Skate America will be a huge boost too.  It’s probably even to their benefit that if their Finlandia performance is any indication, Stepanova & Bukin will probably keep the American teams from going 1-2.  Also looking forward to: both Canadian teams; they both impressed me at their summerskates.

Pre-Grand Prix Thoughts

NGL, I’m a little alarmed at the weak showing of the U.S. on the JGP lately(whodua thunk our sole entry into the Finale would be a pairs team?!), and what that may bode for the future.  It seems so far everybody except Meryl and Charlie are staying in, so it might not be a problem in the near future, but sooner or later that catches up with you.  On the other hand, it might be a relief for those already vying for all the top spots and looking at 2018, since they already know who most of their foes will be for the quadrennium(although it’s still too early to assume noone will come up).

Looking at the current rosters for Skate America next week, Kavaguti & Smirnov really lucked out; neither of the top two teams initially assigned will be there, and they’ll be strong favorites.  On the other hand, there are signs that the USFSA’s gamble which with Russians they took to square off against Gold might fail; Liza T is looking like she is recovering fast, and Gold will have to be on the top of her game to beat Radionova too, though I still think this is her event to lose.

Meanwhile, thanks to V&T’s pulling out of that one, China’s could be a great boon for either Peng & Zhang or Bazarova & Deputat, if the latter can pull themselves together after their rough start on the Challenger circuit.

Glad to see Lubov I is finally free.  Though will she and Moscovitch be able to manage anything more this season than a couple of later Challenger appearances?

It may be difficult to manage, but I hope they keep the splitting of the judge’s tasks they had at Nebelhorn.  It seemed to really work; I honestly thought the scoring was better for it.  After some of the dubious placements that have happened at a high-profile event or two, some change might be a very good idea.

What a period of viewing it’s been too, with live streaming for both the JGP and it seems most of the Challenger events too!  Although it does make being a skating fan a much more time-consuming prospect than of old.

Debris of Pairs Fields

With the latest high-profile break-up in pairs being confirmed today, I think we might go back and revisit the previous season’s standings, and see who’s still together and who’s split.  To try to get a big picture of pairs without going crazy, I am including the top 15 from the Olympics, then three more pairs who weren’t in Sochi but were at Worlds and finished in the top 15 there, and then, for good measure, all the other pairs that finished in the top five at U.S., Canadian, or Russian Nationals.

Did I say North America was being quieter so far?

So much for that idea….although maybe we shouldn’t jump to conclusions so quickly.  Honestly, Kirsten Moore-Towers & Dylan Moscovitch would be such a bizarre split we might want to wait for official confirmation on this one.  But where does all this craziness leave us when it comes to the top ten at the Olympics in pairs and dance?

36 Hours Later

There is finally an embeddable video. Ladies & gents, all the competitors for the Games beginning this week. Password is “sochi” Enjoy.

sochi WMV V9 from Isobel Moody on Vimeo.

This Week in Figure Skating, May 20-26, 2013

This week’s headlines:

Pechalat & Bourzat move to Shpilband, other coaching changes

Ksenia Makarova to miss season

Russian intranational competition locations announced

Carroll confirms return to El Segundo

Suzuki to skate to La Vie En Rose

Multiple other interviews with skaters or coaches

Dancing on Ice’s next season will be last, other reality TV news

Denis Ten has show in Kazakhstan

EDI Awards

This Week in Figure Skating, April 15-21, 2013

This week’s headlines:

Boston announced as USFSA selection for 2016 Worlds bid hours before bombings

Ashley Wagner splits from Phillip Mills

Two apparent team splits & a possible new team

Denney & Coughlin, others announce music

Japan & French skaters gather

International Selection Pool updated

Morozov group to fly to New York

Second World Developement Trophy in Manila

Hong Kong Nationals

Canada Stars on Ice & upcoming shows

Belbin & Agosto possibly to skate together again

Todd Gilles confirms retirement

Cohen & Leonova star in very short films

Alleged 2002 scandal mastermind indicted for worse

This Week in Figure Skating, April 8-14, 2013

This week’s headlines:

USA wins World Team Trophy

Asada announces pending retirement, Chock & Bates music

ISU warns members against competing in Dubai

Current & upcoming shows

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